Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 73300.294485 77466.307121 81635.480543 86117.821656 90797.461972 95535.863114 100693.350506
2025-04-27 67100.602234 73512.643708 80112.677630 87404.307779 95224.437523 103349.854672 112420.951923
2025-05-04 62301.256559 70233.167984 78580.945673 88001.445565 98316.566112 109247.576229 121686.598162
2025-05-11 58252.049934 67277.896794 76956.449402 88074.253442 100458.750581 113796.540034 129212.664043
2025-05-18 55053.985439 64952.025582 75741.125912 88327.013069 102555.853834 118093.262526 136290.993419
2025-05-25 52258.089403 62857.825057 74584.413989 88454.704702 104344.213108 121909.169963 142723.195345
2025-06-01 50428.382534 61723.821516 74387.597012 89552.684807 107130.322235 126772.786517 150288.269050
2025-06-08 48093.410255 59866.527363 73236.304160 89437.545788 108427.053084 129865.955667 155781.313237
2025-06-15 46805.748189 59156.786875 73345.709665 90722.719696 111293.836300 134730.314984 163302.883318
2025-06-22 45348.363554 58164.054098 73051.508765 91470.236850 113482.461911 138778.270860 169867.537776
2025-06-29 43658.270128 56811.390144 72258.290098 91559.450541 114839.695638 141816.862235 175231.192333
2025-07-06 42056.994866 55497.828363 71449.409411 91571.618184 116056.713579 144656.295613 180342.147744
2025-07-13 41152.317071 55022.011052 71645.555122 92802.341380 118757.752085 149298.460792 187666.372218
2025-07-20 40276.439587 54545.082402 71811.458376 93976.057817 121383.250441 153860.940259 194928.909091
2025-07-27 39176.089183 53739.245044 71531.367886 94566.803909 123274.187983 157530.653411 201126.314714
2025-08-03 37896.664583 52656.534328 70862.296041 94634.665235 124490.929103 160364.823332 206308.109187
2025-08-10 36784.718060 51748.879963 70377.246560 94900.519256 125928.539433 163455.674687 211805.004314
2025-08-17 35676.827713 50807.235092 69813.750149 95035.405258 127178.271377 166302.585794 217003.449890
2025-08-24 35082.934363 50518.818228 70068.654492 96198.916995 129716.680516 170748.608825 224198.598314
2025-08-31 33967.794101 49500.135810 69345.915917 96076.881320 130603.257418 173127.606668 228827.594999
2025-09-07 33532.710537 49377.118783 69777.113531 97438.690293 133381.330437 177882.477417 236448.316597
2025-09-14 32885.597049 48943.920022 69781.937402 98230.686588 135421.717664 181713.889077 242929.472646
2025-09-21 31988.121705 48140.426653 69271.720419 98325.203883 136546.106287 184381.214766 247949.299547